Welcome to 2026!

Happy New Year, folks! Can you believe it? We’ve finally landed in 2026, and it’s time to shake off those holiday cobwebs. If you’re caught up in the chaotic web of awards season—whether you’re a journalist trying to keep up or an entertainer trying to snag a golden statue—there’s no time to just chill. It’s been a whirlwind already with the Gotham Awards, all the clapping from the New York Film Critics Circle, and the LA crowd getting their moment too. And let’s not forget, the Critics Choice Awards are making a splash this Sunday night, followed by the Golden Globes, SAG, and the grand finale, the Academy Awards! Phew!

The Top Contenders

Feeling fatigued yet? Or maybe you’re just itching to know who’s in the running and who’s just vibing on the sidelines? Well, you’re in luck! We’ve compiled a list of the heavyweights and the noteworthy underdogs. We’ve ranked them from the top likely winners of Best Picture to those who might just be happy to bask in the buzz. So pour yourself a bubbly drink, kick back, and let’s dive in!

One Battle After Another

Imagine a film festival style showdown that feels like a final boss fight in a video game. Yes, that’s right—Paul Thomas Anderson’s film One Battle After Another is strutting its stuff, already a favorite of every critic with a column. It’s kind of a no-brainer that this flick has got Best Picture in the bag for the Oscars, making it a tough contender for any other film. Some years, we see critics and industry professionals split down the middle, but this time it’s different. We’re shouting “Huzzah!” for the high-octane action spectacle, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, even if its politics are a bit contradictory. Does anyone care if it cost $135 million to make and grossed $205 million worldwide? Nah, it’s a cinematic ride that keeps audiences glued and streaming. Plus, it just feels like the kind of flashy, character-driven film that snatched Best Picture back in the ‘90s! OBAA has got some serious buzz vibes going, thanks to PTA’s long overdue recognition from Oscar land. Plus, it might be one last hurrah for Warner Bros., which is basically the studio equivalent of a beloved grandparent about to be bought out by Netflix. Expect nominations for Best Director, Best Actor (leaving DiCaprio in a head-to-head with Sean Penn), and a whole lot more. We’re talking cinematography, editing, and a nod for Best Adapted Screenplay. Cheers to it all!

Hamnet

Okay, if we need a dark horse to shake things up, let’s put our bets on Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet. This film is like a warm hug compared to PTA’s action-packed adrenaline fest. It’s got that emotional weight that Oscar voters eat up! With big names in play, and Shakespeare in the mix, this might just take a swing at a Best Picture nomination. But don’t sleep on Jessie Buckley—she’s set to snag that Best Actress statue. We’re talking deep motifs of grief and rebirth through art, which totally won over audiences at TIFF. When the crowd loves it, Oscars tend to pay attention!

Sentimental Value

Now let’s chat about Sentimental Value. This international gem, winning hearts at Cannes, could very well continue the trend of excellent European cinema sweeping the Oscars. Who will rally behind this film? Perhaps the Academy’s international voting body, which isn’t shy about loving a good foreign flick. We expect nominations galore for every actor involved, with Renate Reinsve possibly bagging Best Actress. If it’s all about tangible chances, Sentimental Value could sweep in for Best International Film, even if it feels more like a quiet indie film than a mainstream blockbuster. Still, a few surprises in the mix might just shake up the voters!

Marty Supreme

And let’s not count out the underdog that is Marty Supreme. This indie flick, starring Timothée Chalamet, has turned heads with its unexpected success during the holiday season! It’s climbing the ranks faster than your New Year’s resolutions. With a feel-good narrative about ping-pong, you never know how the Oscars will react. However, this could mean sweet victory for Chalamet, while the director Josh Safdie hopes a nomination is in the cards.

Sinners

Now, don’t freak out because Sinners is hanging back in our rankings. It’s a crowd-pleaser with serious themes—it has all the makings of a blockbuster, yet horror doesn’t always tend to find a loving embrace at the Oscars. Remember the last time a horror film took home the top honor? Yeah, it was all the way back in 1991 with Silence of the Lambs.

It Was Just an Accident

Floating into the race, we’ve got the subtle yet poignant It Was Just an Accident. This bad boy won Cannes’ Palme d’Or, and with its real-life backdrop of bravery, it’s got Academy vibes oozing off of it. But let’s face it; it might end up being the token international nominee.

Frankenstein

Yes, Frankenstein is a cinematic piece crafted by the genius Guillermo del Toro! While the Academy can be a bit snobby about horror (or as they call it, ‘a tragedy’), del Toro’s oeuvre is championed. We see hardcore nominations happening here, especially for technical categories!

Train Dreams

Clint Bentley’s lovely film Train Dreams is filled with reflections about the working class and their vital contributions. Expect strong nominations for Best Cinematography and maybe a whisper of potential in the Best Actor category—but let’s temper our expectations.

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Then we have the Avatar: Fire and Ash movie teetering on the edge of nominations. Despite great box office numbers, it seems critics aren’t raving about it. Nonetheless, James Cameron’s reputation remains golden, and the Oscars often lean towards financial darlings, which could bode well for him when it comes voting time.

Bugonia

This film, Bugonia, seems likely to halk a spot in the nominations, thanks to its unique narrative style and its collaboration with Emma Stone. However, this gem may not be winning every category, and it’s wisest to put our bets on a nomination for Stone.

Wicked: For Good

Oh, and here comes Wicked: For Good. While its quality remains questionable, Ariana Grande’s popularity could still foot the bill for a nomination. Honestly, Rosy seems like a solid bet for Best Supporting Actress—though let’s not expect it to dominate across the board.

The Secret Agent

Another flick causing bits of buzz, The Secret Agent, may have a moment but could get overshadowed in the final nominee listings. Though deserving, it faces strong competition. But we certainly envision a nod for Best International Film.

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Coming out swinging is If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, led by Rose Byrne. While her performance is extraordinary, the peculiar vibe might hold it back from a win. But can we all agree that Byrne deserves every accolade coming her way?

Blue Moon

Moving on to Richard Linklater’s Blue Moon. Acting-wise, we’re pinning our hopes on Ethan Hawke to snag an Actor nomination while telling a bittersweet story of famed lyricist Lorenz Hart. Should be a classic!

Weapons

And how could we not mention Weapons? This film promises entertainment and quite possibly a spot for Amy Madigan in the Best Supporting Actress category. Still, horror is a tough sell—let’s see how this all plays out!

KPop Demon Hunters

Even if you are an army of BLINK or Huntr/x, KPop Demon Hunters is not getting a nomination. But don’t worry—animated features have a warm place in Oscar hearts, and this could snag that golden statue for Best Animated Feature!

No Other Choice

And lastly, wrapping up is No Other Choice. It’s our personal favorite but doesn’t scream Oscar material. Nonetheless, fingers-crossed for Best International Film and maybe Best Adapted Screenplay!

The Smashing Machine

Oh boy, this might be a missed opportunity. Despite being led by Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine may fall below the radar. Nonetheless, a shot at Best Makeup may emerge from the shadows.

Jay Kelly

Noah Baumbach’s latest flick—Jay Kelly—seems to have fallen flat. It should’ve been an Oscar darling but fizzled before it could even glow.

A House of Dynamite

And let’s not forget A House of Dynamite. With Kathryn Bigelow at the helm, it had all the potential but ended up feeling heavy-handed. Sorry, but no nominations in the cards.

Die, My Love

Wrapping things up is Die, My Love. Despite Jennifer Lawrence’s Oscar history, others in the race seem to have outshone this one. Sorry, Lawrence—but comfort yourself in knowing you’re still fabulous.